The Pride of Numbers and the Mercy of God Text: 1 Chronicles 21:1-17
Introduction: The Idol of the Spreadsheet
We live in an age that worships at the altar of data. We are obsessed with metrics, analytics, polls, and projections. Our confidence rises and falls with the stock market ticker, the latest approval ratings, or the number of followers on a social media account. We have come to believe, in our sophisticated and secular way, that if we can just quantify something, we can control it. If we can count it, we can conquer it. This is the idol of the spreadsheet, the false god of the algorithm. And it is a very old sin, dressed up in new, digital clothes.
The temptation is to believe that our strength lies in what we can measure. For a king, it is the number of soldiers. For a pastor, it might be the number of attendees. For a businessman, it is the bottom line. For an individual, it is the number in the bank account. We find our security in the tangible, the countable, the humanly verifiable. But this is a direct assault on the First Commandment. It is a declaration of independence from God. It is the creature telling the Creator, "Thank you for your help so far, but I think I can take it from here. I've run the numbers."
This is precisely the sin that King David commits in our text today. After years of God's miraculous deliverance, after seeing the Lord defeat giants with a boy's sling and mighty armies with a handful of men, David decides he needs a spreadsheet. He wants to know the strength of his army. He wants to quantify his power. In doing so, he takes his eyes off the Lord of Hosts and places his trust in the hosts themselves. This is not a mere administrative error; it is a profound act of unbelief, a sin of pride that strikes at the very heart of his relationship with God. And as we will see, when the king sins, the kingdom suffers. The principle of federal headship, that the one represents the many, is written all over this story. It is a hard lesson, but a necessary one, for it shows us both the devastating consequences of our sin and the even greater mercy of our God, a mercy that is ultimately found not in our strength, but at a place of sacrifice.
This chapter is a stark reminder that God will not be mocked. He will not allow His people to find their ultimate security in anything other than Himself. He will gladly wreck our statistical models and burn our spreadsheets to the ground, if that is what it takes to bring us back to a place of humble, desperate reliance upon Him.
The Text
Then Satan stood up against Israel and incited David to number Israel. So David said to Joab and to the princes of the people, “Go, count Israel from Beersheba even to Dan, and bring me word that I may know their total count.” But Joab said, “May Yahweh add to His people a hundred times as many as they are! But, my lord the king, are they not all my lord’s servants? Why does my lord seek this thing? Why should he be a cause of guilt to Israel?” Nevertheless, the king’s word stood strong against Joab. So, Joab went out and went throughout all Israel, and came to Jerusalem. And Joab gave the total count of the census of the people to David. And all Israel were 1,100,000 men who drew the sword; and Judah was 470,000 men who drew the sword. But he did not number Levi and Benjamin among them, for the king’s command was abominable to Joab. And this thing was displeasing in the sight of God, so He struck Israel. Then David said to God, “I have sinned greatly, in that I have done this thing. But now, please take away the iniquity of Your slave, for I have acted very foolishly.” And Yahweh spoke to Gad, David’s seer, saying, “Go and speak to David, saying, ‘Thus says Yahweh, “I am offering you three things; choose for yourself one of them, and I will do that to you.” ’ ” So Gad came to David and said to him, “Thus says Yahweh, ‘Take for yourself either three years of famine, or three months to be swept away before your adversaries, while the sword of your enemies overtakes you, or else three days of the sword of Yahweh, even pestilence in the land, and the angel of Yahweh destroying throughout all the territory of Israel.’ So now, see what word I should return to Him who sent me.” Then David said to Gad, “I am in great distress. Let me now fall into the hand of Yahweh, for His compassions are exceedingly abundant. But do not let me fall into the hand of man.” So Yahweh sent a pestilence against Israel; and 70,000 men of Israel fell. And God sent an angel to Jerusalem to destroy it; but as he was about to destroy it, Yahweh saw and relented concerning the calamity, and said to the destroying angel, “It is enough! Now relax your hand.” And the angel of Yahweh was standing by the threshing floor of Ornan the Jebusite. Then David lifted up his eyes and saw the angel of Yahweh standing between earth and heaven, with his drawn sword in his hand stretched out over Jerusalem. Then David and the elders, covered with sackcloth, fell on their faces. And David said to God, “Is it not I who commanded to number the people? Indeed, I am the one who has sinned and done a great evil; but these sheep, what have they done? O Yahweh my God, please let Your hand be against me and my father’s household, but not against Your people that they should be plagued.”
(1 Chronicles 21:1-17 LSB)
Satan's Bait and David's Pride (vv. 1-6)
We begin with the instigation and the execution of this sinful census.
"Then Satan stood up against Israel and incited David to number Israel." (1 Chronicles 21:1)
The Chronicler begins by pulling back the curtain to show us the spiritual reality behind the event. Satan is the agent of incitement. The parallel account in 2 Samuel 24:1 says that the anger of the Lord was kindled against Israel, and "He" moved David. There is no contradiction here. We must hold both truths in tension. God is utterly sovereign, and in His sovereign wrath against Israel's sin, He permits Satan to do his dirty work. Satan acts according to his own malicious nature, but he is always on a leash. God uses the malice of the devil to accomplish His own righteous purposes, in this case, to expose the pride in David's heart and to judge the sin of the people. This is the biblical doctrine of concurrence. God is not the author of sin, but He is the author of the plan in which the sin occurs, and He ordains it for His own glory without being culpable in the slightest. Satan meant it for evil, but God meant it for good.
David, incited by the enemy and his own pride, gives the command. Joab, who is no moral paragon himself, immediately recognizes the spiritual danger. His response is telling: "May Yahweh add to His people a hundred times as many as they are! But, my lord the king, are they not all my lord’s servants?" Joab's theology is better than David's here. He says, first, that population growth is God's business, not ours. Second, he reminds David that the people belong to God, not to the king. To count them as "your" soldiers is to claim an ownership that belongs to God alone. It is an act of presumption. Why are you seeking security in your own military assets when your security has always been in the Lord?
But David's pride is intractable. "The king's word stood strong against Joab." When a man is set in his pride, even the counsel of a gruff, worldly-wise general cannot dissuade him. Joab obeys, but he does so with such revulsion that he refuses to count the tribes of Levi and Benjamin. The king's command was "abominable" to him. This is a strong word. It tells us that this was not a simple policy disagreement. This was a foul, spiritual stench. David was playing with fire, and Joab could smell the smoke.
Sin, Confession, and a Terrible Choice (vv. 7-13)
The census is completed, the numbers are in, and the bill comes due immediately.
"And this thing was displeasing in the sight of God, so He struck Israel. Then David said to God, 'I have sinned greatly, in that I have done this thing. But now, please take away the iniquity of Your slave, for I have acted very foolishly.'" (1 Chronicles 21:7-8 LSB)
As soon as the numbers are delivered, David's conscience, pricked by God, awakens. The folly of his pride becomes clear to him. His confession is immediate and heartfelt. He doesn't make excuses. He doesn't blame Joab or Satan. He says, "I have sinned greatly... I have acted very foolishly." This is the mark of a man after God's own heart. Not that he doesn't sin, but that when he does, he owns it completely.
But confession does not erase consequences. God sends the prophet Gad to David with a terrifying choice. Three years of famine, three months of flight before his enemies, or three days of the sword of Yahweh, a pestilence. Notice the escalating intensity and the decreasing duration. God is offering David a choice of judgment. This is a severe mercy. God is teaching David, and all of Israel, that sin has real, tangible, and devastating costs in the here and now.
David's response is one of the most profound moments in his life. "I am in great distress. Let me now fall into the hand of Yahweh, for His compassions are exceedingly abundant. But do not let me fall into the hand of man." David, in his anguish, reasons correctly. He knows that the famine would involve hoarding and human cruelty. He knows that fleeing before his enemies would mean experiencing the merciless wrath of pagan armies. But the pestilence, the "sword of Yahweh," is judgment directly from God's hand. And David, even under judgment, knows that the safest place to be is in the hands of God. He trusts God's character even when facing God's wrath. He knows that with God, there is always mercy, even in the midst of judgment. Man's mercy is fickle and often nonexistent. God's mercy is infinite. This is deep, covenantal wisdom.
The Angel, the Plague, and the Shepherd's Heart (vv. 14-17)
David makes his choice, and the judgment is swift and terrible.
"So Yahweh sent a pestilence against Israel; and 70,000 men of Israel fell." (1 Chronicles 21:14 LSB)
Seventy thousand men die. Let that sink in. This is not a small number. This is a catastrophic loss of life. And it raises the question that our modern, individualistic sensibilities scream at: Why do the people suffer for the king's sin? This is where we must understand the biblical doctrine of federal headship. A king, a father, a pastor, is a representative head. His actions have consequences for all who are under his authority. When Adam sinned, we all fell. When the Second Adam, Christ, obeyed, many were made righteous. This is the way the world works. We are not isolated individuals; we are covenantally bound together. Israel's king sinned, and the nation was judged. This is not unjust; it is the very fabric of reality. The people were not blameless either, as 2 Samuel tells us God's anger was already kindled against them. David's sin was simply the occasion for the judgment they all deserved.
The judgment culminates in a terrifying vision. The angel of Yahweh stands over Jerusalem with a drawn sword, ready to destroy it. But God relents. He says to the angel, "It is enough! Now relax your hand." God's judgment is always measured. It is corrective, not capricious. And at this moment of high drama, David sees the angel. He and the elders, clothed in sackcloth, fall on their faces in terror and repentance.
And here, David's shepherd heart, the heart that made him a man after God's own heart, shines through. He intercedes for his people.
"And David said to God, 'Is it not I who commanded to number the people? Indeed, I am the one who has sinned and done a great evil; but these sheep, what have they done? O Yahweh my God, please let Your hand be against me and my father’s household, but not against Your people that they should be plagued.'" (1 Chronicles 21:17 LSB)
This is the cry of a true federal head. He takes the responsibility entirely upon himself. He offers himself as a substitute. "Punish me, punish my family, but spare these sheep." He sees the people not as assets on a spreadsheet, but as sheep entrusted to his care. His sin was forgetting this, and now in his repentance, he remembers. He is willing to take the sword of judgment himself to save his people. In this, David is a magnificent type of Christ. He models the heart of the Great Shepherd, who saw His sheep under the sentence of death and said to the Father, "Let your hand be against Me. I will take the plague. I will take the sword. I will take the curse, so that these sheep may go free."
David's sin of pride led to a devastating judgment. But God, in His mercy, used that very judgment to bring David to a place of profound repentance and substitutionary love, and to reveal the very spot on which the temple would be built, the place where sacrifice would atone for sin. God's plan was never derailed by David's pride. He sovereignly used it to point forward to the true King who would stand in the gap, and the true sacrifice that would turn away God's wrath for good.
Conclusion: Trusting the Shepherd, Not the Sheep
The sin of David is our sin. We are constantly tempted to trust in numbers, to find our security in our resources, our abilities, our plans. We want to know that we have enough in the bank, enough people on our side, enough strength to handle whatever comes. But this is the path of pride, and it always leads to a fall.
God's economy is different. He delights in using the weak to shame the strong. He wins battles with 300 men against a horde. He feeds 5,000 with a boy's lunch. He saves the world through a crucified Messiah. Our strength is not in our numbers; our strength is in the name of the Lord.
When we fall into this sin, as we all do, the path back is the one David took. First, immediate and honest confession. "I have sinned. I have been a fool." No excuses. Second, throw yourself on the mercy of God. "Let me fall into the hand of Yahweh." Even His judgment is better than the false mercy of the world. And third, look to the substitute. David offered himself, but he was a flawed substitute. His plea pointed to a greater one. We look to the Lord Jesus Christ, the true Shepherd-King, who saw us standing under the drawn sword of God's wrath.
He did not just offer to take our place; He took it. The pestilence of our sin fell on Him. The sword of God's justice struck Him down at Calvary. And because He stood in the gap, God now says to the destroying angel, "It is enough." The judgment is satisfied. The wrath is appeased. For all who are in Christ, the plague has passed over. Our hope is not in our numbers, but in the one who was numbered with the transgressors for our sake.