The Arithmetic of Unbelief Text: 1 Samuel 13:15-18
Introduction: The High Cost of Pious Panic
We come now to the aftermath of Saul's great spiritual failure at Gilgal. And we must see that it is a spiritual failure, even though it was dressed up in the most pious of motives. Saul had just committed a sin that looked for all the world like zeal. The people were scattering, the Philistine horde was gathering, and the prophet Samuel was late. So Saul, in a fit of what we might call pious panic, took matters into his own hands and offered the sacrifice. He did the right thing in the wrong way, which is another way of saying he did the wrong thing. He disobeyed a direct command from God's prophet, and in so doing, revealed that his heart was governed by sight, not by faith. He trusted in the ritual to manipulate God, rather than trusting in God who established the ritual.
Samuel has pronounced the verdict: "You have done foolishly... your kingdom shall not continue" (1 Sam. 13:13-14). And now, in our text, we see the immediate consequences of this disobedience. The narrative does not give us a chapter break to soften the blow. The consequences are not delayed. What we are about to read is not a new, unrelated set of military problems. It is the direct fruit of the tree Saul just planted. Disobedience is never a static event; it is a seed that always, always bears fruit. And the fruit of unbelief is disintegration. The fruit of seizing control is losing control. The fruit of trying to save your kingdom is watching it crumble before your eyes. Saul wanted to keep his army together by his own initiative, and so God shows him what that initiative is worth. He is about to learn the hard math of rebellion.
This is a lesson for us. We live in an age of pragmatism, an age that constantly tempts us to believe that the ends justify the means. We are tempted to cut corners, to bend the rules, to compromise on God's clear commands because, after all, "we have to do something." But this passage is a stark warning. When we operate out of fear and unbelief, the very things we are trying to prevent are the things God will bring upon us. When we take up the priest's role, or the king's role, or God's role, we find that our own hands are far too small and clumsy to manage the affairs of the world. Saul is about to see his kingdom shrink, his enemies multiply, and his options evaporate. This is what happens when a man trusts his own calculations more than God's covenant promises.
The Text
Then Samuel arose and went up from Gilgal to Gibeah of Benjamin. And Saul numbered the people who were present with him, about six hundred men. Now Saul and his son Jonathan and the people who were present with them were staying in Geba of Benjamin, and the Philistines camped at Michmash. And the raiders came from the camp of the Philistines in three companies: one company turned toward Ophrah, to the land of Shual, and another company turned to the way of Beth-horon, and another company turned to the way of the border which overlooks the valley of Zeboim toward the wilderness.
(1 Samuel 13:15-18 LSB)
The Prophet Departs, The King Diminishes (v. 15)
The first verse sets the scene with a departure and a headcount.
"Then Samuel arose and went up from Gilgal to Gibeah of Benjamin. And Saul numbered the people who were present with him, about six hundred men." (1 Samuel 13:15)
Notice the first action. Samuel leaves. He goes up from Gilgal, the place of covenant memorial, now tainted by covenant infidelity, to Gibeah, which was Saul's hometown, his seat of power. The departure of the prophet is a physical manifestation of the departure of God's blessing. When the Word of the Lord, in the person of His prophet, is rejected, that Word departs. Saul has chosen his own wisdom over God's command, and so he is left with his own wisdom. He has chosen to act without the prophet, and now he must govern without the prophet. This is a terrifying judgment. To be left to your own devices is one of the most severe punishments God can inflict.
And what is the first thing Saul does when left to himself? He counts. "And Saul numbered the people." This is the action of a man governed by sight. He is doing the math. He is assessing his resources. He is looking at his spreadsheet. Earlier, he had three thousand men (1 Sam. 13:2). After his act of disobedience, intended to stop the bleeding, he is now down to about six hundred. His pragmatic sin did not solve his problem; it accelerated it. He acted because the people were scattering, and after his action, they scattered even more. This is the arithmetic of unbelief. When you try to secure your position by disobeying God, you find that your position becomes radically less secure. You are trying to plug a leak with a sieve.
Six hundred men. This is a paltry force to face the Philistine army, which was described as being like "the sand which is on the seashore in abundance" (1 Sam. 13:5). From a human perspective, the situation has gone from difficult to impossible. But we must remember Gideon, who started with thirty-two thousand and was whittled down by God to three hundred. God loves to win with a remnant, because it makes it clear that He is the one winning. But Saul does not see a remnant of faith; he sees a remainder of failure. He is looking at his assets, and God has just liquidated most of them.
A Kingdom in Crisis (v. 16)
Verse 16 gives us the strategic positioning of the two opposing forces, and it is not encouraging for Israel.
"Now Saul and his son Jonathan and the people who were present with them were staying in Geba of Benjamin, and the Philistines camped at Michmash." (1 Samuel 13:16)
Saul and his tiny band are holed up in Geba. The Philistines are camped at Michmash. These two towns are very close, separated only by a steep ravine, the Wadi Suweinit. They are staring at each other across a canyon. The Philistines hold the strategic high ground. They are confident, numerous, and well-armed. Saul and his men are hunkered down, demoralized, and diminished.
This is a picture of the kingdom Saul has built through his disobedience. It is a kingdom under siege, a kingdom on the defensive, a kingdom trapped. He has traded the wide-open spaces of God's blessing for the cramped confines of a fortress. When you walk by faith, the world is your parish. When you walk by sight, your world shrinks to the size of your foxhole.
It is important that Jonathan is mentioned here. "Saul and his son Jonathan." Jonathan is the foil to his father. In the next chapter, it will be Jonathan who acts in bold faith, trusting not in numbers but in the Lord. While Saul is counting, Jonathan is getting ready to climb. While Saul is paralyzed by the odds, Jonathan will say, "nothing can hinder the LORD from saving by many or by few" (1 Sam. 14:6). The contrast is being set up for us. We are seeing two kinds of leadership, two kinds of hearts, side-by-side in the same desperate situation. One is the way of sight, which leads to paralysis and decay. The other is the way of faith, which leads to victory against all odds.
The Enemy on the Move (v. 17-18)
The consequences of Saul's sin are not just a diminished army; it is an emboldened and active enemy. The Philistines are not content to sit in their camp.
"And the raiders came from the camp of the Philistines in three companies: one company turned toward Ophrah, to the land of Shual, and another company turned to the way of Beth-horon, and another company turned to the way of the border which overlooks the valley of Zeboim toward the wilderness." (1 Samuel 13:17-18)
While Saul and his six hundred men are pinned down in Geba, the Philistines are fanning out across the land. They are not launching a single, frontal assault. They are sending out raiding parties in three different directions: one to the north (Ophrah), one to the west (Beth-horon), and one to the east (toward the wilderness). This is a brilliant military strategy, and a devastating spiritual reality.
What does this mean? It means the Philistines are now operating with impunity. They are so confident that Saul's tiny army is no threat that they can divide their own forces and go pillaging. They own the countryside. They are choking off Israel's supply lines, terrorizing the villages, and plundering the land at will. Saul's sin has not just weakened his army; it has unleashed chaos upon his people. The king's job is to protect the nation, and because of his failure of faith, the nation is being devoured.
This is what sin does. It doesn't just affect you. A leader's sin, in particular, has far-reaching consequences. Saul's disobedience at Gilgal is now being felt by farmers in Ophrah, by families in Beth-horon, and by shepherds near the valley of Zeboim. When we choose our own way, we open the door for the enemy to raid the lives of those we are called to protect. A father's compromise with sin opens the door for the enemy to raid his family. A pastor's worldliness opens the door for the enemy to raid his congregation. A ruler's unfaithfulness opens the door for the enemy to raid his nation. Saul is trapped, and his people are paying the price.
Conclusion: The Hopelessness of Sight
So, what is the picture we are left with at the end of this passage? It is a picture of utter human hopelessness. The prophet is gone. The army is a fraction of its former self. The king is paralyzed. The enemy is swarming over the land like locusts. If you were one of those six hundred men with Saul, looking at the situation from a purely human perspective, you would conclude that all is lost. The only rational choice would be to surrender or to run.
And this is precisely the point. God has engineered this situation to demonstrate the bankruptcy of walking by sight. He has stripped Saul of all his human resources to show him, and to show us, that victory does not depend on human resources. Saul's sin was thinking that the battle depended on him, on his timing, on his sacrifices, on the number of his soldiers. So God says, "Alright. Let's see what your resources can do." And the answer is, nothing. They lead to being cornered in a town while your kingdom is torn apart piece by piece.
But this is not the end of the story. This is the backdrop against which the glorious faith of Jonathan will shine in the next chapter. It is the dark canvas on which God will paint a masterpiece of deliverance. And it is a picture of our own condition apart from Christ. Spiritually, we are like Saul's army: diminished, trapped, with the enemy raiding our lives at will. We are utterly without strength. Our own efforts to save ourselves only make things worse. We are down to our last six hundred men, and they are deserting fast.
Into this hopeless situation comes a true King, a better Jonathan. Jesus Christ did not come when our armies were strong, but "while we were still weak, at the right time Christ died for the ungodly" (Romans 5:6). He faced the enemy not with three thousand men, or six hundred, but alone. He faced the full force of God's judgment on our sin by Himself. And by His faith, by His perfect obedience, He won the decisive victory. He did not act out of pious panic, but out of perfect trust in His Father.
Therefore, the lesson for us is to abandon the arithmetic of unbelief. Stop counting your soldiers. Stop looking at the size of the enemy. Stop trying to manipulate God with your frantic, disobedient sacrifices. Look away from your own dwindling resources and look to the King who has already won the war. The path of Saul leads to a shrinking kingdom and a spreading enemy. But the path of faith, the path of trusting in God's promises in Christ, leads to a victory that "nothing can hinder," whether by many or by few.